Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin McCully vs Mike Russow

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-2Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
235 lbsWeight256 lbs
Team PunishmentTeamTBD

What's at stake

Mike Russow is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Justin McCully carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Justin McCullyNow 1599
If they win+17→ 1616
If they lose-15→ 1584
Mike RussowNow 1631
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-17→ 1614

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.58
Sig. strikes / min
1.55
38%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
47%
Strike defense
60%
1.28
Takedown avg.
4.66
44%
Takedown accuracy
44%
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Justin McCullyMike Russow
160016502010201120122013

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
6 (55%)
Submission
8 (53%)
4 (36%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Russow60%
Justin McCully 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Russow a 60% favorite over Justin McCully in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Mike Russow holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1599, a 32-point edge.

Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mike Russow enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Justin McCully finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Mike Russow 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.