Justin McElfresh vs Mataeo Garner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record4-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
TeamInferno MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1532
If they lose-16→ 1500
If they win+25→ 1532
If they lose-23→ 1484
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin McElfreshMataeo Garner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mataeo Garner62%
Justin McElfresh 38%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Mataeo Garner a 62% favorite over Justin McElfresh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin McElfresh's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1516 vs 1507), separated by just 9 points.
Mataeo Garner enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin McElfresh finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Mataeo Garner 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.