Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Scoggins vs Ulka Sasaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ulka Sasaki
jp

Ulka Sasaki

“Ulka”

24-10-2FeatherweightRFF

1545Average

Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record24-10-2
FlyweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
66,0"Reach71.00
125 lbsWeight145 lbs
Revolution Mixed Martial ArtsTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team

What's at stake

Justin Scoggins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ulka Sasaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Justin ScogginsNow 1619
If they win+13→ 1632
If they lose-19→ 1600
Ulka SasakiNow 1545
If they win+19→ 1564
If they lose-13→ 1532

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
2.16
52%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
56%
Strike defense
50%
3.42
Takedown avg.
3.03
64%
Takedown accuracy
43%
83%
Takedown defense
41%
0.45
Submission avg.
1.16

Trajectory

Justin ScogginsUlka Sasaki
155016001650201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
2 (8%)
2 (13%)
Submission
12 (50%)
6 (40%)
Decision
10 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Scoggins63%
Ulka Sasaki 37%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Scoggins a 63% favorite over Ulka Sasaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Justin Scoggins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1545, a 74-point edge.

Ulka Sasaki enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Justin Scoggins finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Ulka Sasaki 58%.

Ulka Sasaki carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.