Justin Sumter vs Marcus Nash
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-5-0Record5-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
80,0"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fighting Arts Academy CTTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1568
If they lose-16→ 1536
If they win+24→ 1576
If they lose-24→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin SumterMarcus Nash
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Sumter55%
Marcus Nash 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Sumter a 55% favorite over Marcus Nash in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1552), separated by just 0 points.
Justin Sumter finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Nash 80%.
Justin Sumter carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.