Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Sumter vs Rômulo Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record7-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
80,0"Reach-
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fighting Arts Academy CTTeamW Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin SumterNow 1552
If they win+16→ 1568
If they lose-16→ 1536
Rômulo OliveiraNow 1549
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
7.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
34%
Strike defense
TBD
2.87
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Justin SumterRômulo Oliveira
15501600202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
5 (56%)
Submission
1 (14%)
2 (22%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Rômulo Oliveira62%
Justin Sumter 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rômulo Oliveira a 62% favorite over Justin Sumter in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Sumter's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1549), separated by just 3 points.

Justin Sumter finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rômulo Oliveira 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.