Justin Tafa vs Karl Williams
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach79"
265 lbsWeight247 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaKarl Williams
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa55%
Karl Williams 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 55% favorite over Karl Williams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1600), separated by just 8 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Karl Williams 30%.
Karl Williams carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.