Justin Tafa vs Lucas Armand
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record6-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
74"Reach78"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamMurcielago MMA· 1670 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1586
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaLucas Armand
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Armand66%
Justin Tafa 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Armand a 66% favorite over Justin Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1610), separated by just 2 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Armand 83%.
Lucas Armand carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.