Justin Tafa vs Mukhamad Vakhaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record13-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach-
265 lbsWeight266 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamFight Club Akhmat· avg 1683 Elo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaMukhamad Vakhaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa51%
Mukhamad Vakhaev 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 51% favorite over Mukhamad Vakhaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mukhamad Vakhaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mukhamad Vakhaev enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mukhamad Vakhaev 85%.
Justin Tafa and Mukhamad Vakhaev share 1 common opponent: Carlos Felipe.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.