Justin Tafa vs Paul Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
74"Reach-
265 lbsWeight246 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+24→ 1631
If they lose-24→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaPaul Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Elliott60%
Justin Tafa 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Elliott a 60% favorite over Justin Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Tafa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1607), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paul Elliott enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Paul Elliott 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.