Justin Tafa vs Todd Duffee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record9-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach78,0"
265 lbsWeight241 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaTodd Duffee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa63%
Todd Duffee 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 63% favorite over Todd Duffee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1601), separated by just 7 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Todd Duffee enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Todd Duffee 100%.
Todd Duffee carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.