Justin Tafa vs Yorgan De Castro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
74"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamRegiment Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Tafa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Yorgan De Castro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-17→ 1591
If they win+17→ 1599
If they lose-15→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaYorgan De Castro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa66%
Yorgan De Castro 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 66% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Justin Tafa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1582, a 26-point edge.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.