Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Willis vs Mario Piazzon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record12-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
41,0"Reach73"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamGalpao da Luta· 1695 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin WillisNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Mario PiazzonNow 1663
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.37
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
59%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
58%
Strike defense
TBD
0.96
Takedown avg.
TBD
67%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
36%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Justin WillisMario Piazzon
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
4 (50%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Piazzon66%
Justin Willis 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Piazzon a 66% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1663), separated by just 6 points.

Mario Piazzon enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Justin Willis finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mario Piazzon 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.