Justin Willis vs Mark Hunt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record13-14-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'10"
41,0"Reach72"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Justin Willis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mark Hunt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1674
If they lose-17→ 1642
If they win+13→ 1655
If they lose-11→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin WillisMark Hunt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Hunt52%
Justin Willis 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Hunt a 52% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Willis's way (48%).
Justin Willis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1642, a 17-point edge.
Mark Hunt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Willis finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mark Hunt 77%.
Justin Willis and Mark Hunt share 1 common opponent: Curtis Blaydes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.