Justin Wren vs Steven Asplund
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
TBDReach78"
265 lbsWeight261 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamMcCune's Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1492 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin WrenSteven Asplund
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steven Asplund69%
Justin Wren 31%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Steven Asplund a 69% favorite over Justin Wren in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Wren's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1648 vs 1646), separated by just 2 points.
Justin Wren enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Justin Wren finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.