Combat Edge Intelligence

Jutaro Nakao vs Randy Mboyo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-21-4Record4-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight157 lbs
Jutaro Nakao MMA SchoolTeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jutaro NakaoNow 1533
If they win+12→ 1545
If they lose-12→ 1521
Randy MboyoNow 1536
If they win+24→ 1560
If they lose-24→ 1512

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.59
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
43%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
56%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jutaro NakaoRandy Mboyo
145015001550201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (100%)
14 (54%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (19%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Randy Mboyo71%
Jutaro Nakao 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Randy Mboyo a 71% favorite over Jutaro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1533 vs 1536), separated by just 3 points.

Jutaro Nakao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jutaro Nakao finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Randy Mboyo 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.