Jutaro Nakao vs Sean Sherk
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-21-4Record36-4-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jutaro Nakao MMA SchoolTeamMinnesota Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
Sean Sherk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jutaro Nakao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1551
If they lose-6→ 1527
If they win+6→ 1728
If they lose-18→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jutaro NakaoSean Sherk
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Sherk84%
Jutaro Nakao 16%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Sherk a 84% favorite over Jutaro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Sean Sherk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1533, a 189-point edge.
Jutaro Nakao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sean Sherk enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jutaro Nakao finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Sean Sherk 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.