Jutaro Nakao vs Tony DeSouza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-21-4Record11-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Jutaro Nakao MMA SchoolTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Tony DeSouza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jutaro Nakao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1549
If they lose-8→ 1525
If they win+11→ 1668
If they lose-21→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jutaro NakaoTony DeSouza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony DeSouza78%
Jutaro Nakao 22%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony DeSouza a 78% favorite over Jutaro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Tony DeSouza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1533, a 124-point edge.
Jutaro Nakao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jutaro Nakao finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Tony DeSouza 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.