Kacper Cholewa vs Paul Kelly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record15-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1520 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper CholewaPaul Kelly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kacper Cholewa73%
Paul Kelly 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kacper Cholewa a 73% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1535), separated by just 0 points.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kacper Cholewa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.