Kacper Cholewa vs Shannon Gugerty
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Sportowe PulawyTeamVictory MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1520 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper CholewaShannon Gugerty
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kacper Cholewa60%
Shannon Gugerty 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kacper Cholewa a 60% favorite over Shannon Gugerty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1534), separated by just 1 points.
Kacper Cholewa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Shannon Gugerty 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.