Kaelob Alger vs Marcos Vinicius
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-2-0Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
What's at stake
Kaelob Alger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1472
If they lose-25→ 1424
If they win+17→ 1450
If they lose-15→ 1418
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kaelob AlgerMarcos Vinicius
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaelob Alger60%
Marcos Vinicius 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaelob Alger a 60% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Kaelob Alger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1449 to 1433, a 16-point edge.
Kaelob Alger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.