Kai Asakura vs Rafael Estevam
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
134 lbsWeight128 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1655 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1745
If they lose-12→ 1721
If they win+16→ 1751
If they lose-16→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kai AsakuraRafael Estevam
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Asakura52%
Rafael Estevam 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Asakura a 52% favorite over Rafael Estevam in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Estevam's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1733 vs 1735), separated by just 2 points.
Kai Asakura enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kai Asakura finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.