Kai Asakura vs Said Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record18-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
69"Reach70"
134 lbsWeight135 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1655 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1680 avg Elo · 29 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1745
If they lose-12→ 1721
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kai AsakuraSaid Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Said Nurmagomedov57%
Kai Asakura 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Said Nurmagomedov a 57% favorite over Kai Asakura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kai Asakura's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1733 vs 1732), separated by just 1 points.
Kai Asakura enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kai Asakura finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Said Nurmagomedov 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.