Kai Kamaka III vs TJ Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-1Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamWestside MMA
What's at stake
Kai Kamaka III is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — TJ Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
If they win+14→ 1615
If they lose-10→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kamaka IIITJ Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kamaka III83%
TJ Brown 17%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kamaka III a 83% favorite over TJ Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Kai Kamaka III holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1601, a 58-point edge.
Kai Kamaka III finishes 22% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.
TJ Brown carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.