Kai Kamaka III vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-1Record8-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
69"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight138 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Kai Kamaka III is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tony Kelley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
If they win+28→ 1622
If they lose-20→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kamaka IIITony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kamaka III72%
Tony Kelley 28%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kamaka III a 72% favorite over Tony Kelley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Kai Kamaka III holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1594, a 65-point edge.
Kai Kamaka III finishes 22% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.