Combat Edge Intelligence

Kai Kara-France vs Lucas Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-12-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'2"
69″Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
City KickboxingTeamRenovacao Coari Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kai Kara-FranceNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667
Lucas RochaNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.56
Sig. strikes / min
5.09
40%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.67
65%
Strike defense
56%
0.61
Takedown avg.
1.64
33%
Takedown accuracy
75%
88%
Takedown defense
76%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kai Kara-FranceLucas Rocha
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
3 (12%)
Submission
4 (22%)
10 (40%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Rocha60%
Kai Kara-France 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 60% favorite over Kai Kara-France in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kai Kara-France's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1678), separated by just 1 points.

Kai Kara-France finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.

Kai Kara-France carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.