Kai Kara-France vs Rogério Bontorin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
69″Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
City KickboxingTeamGile Ribeiro Team
What's at stake
Kai Kara-France is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rogério Bontorin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1690
If they lose-13→ 1666
If they win+17→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kara-FranceRogério Bontorin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kai Kara-France52%
Rogério Bontorin 48%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Kai Kara-France a 52% favorite over Rogério Bontorin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Kai Kara-France holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1679 to 1661, a 18-point edge.
Kai Kara-France finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rogério Bontorin 82%.
Kai Kara-France and Rogério Bontorin share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Kai Kara-France carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.