Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record14-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
69″Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
City KickboxingTeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kai Kara-France carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1692
If they lose-11→ 1668
If they win+15→ 1720
If they lose-17→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kara-FranceSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Erceg67%
Kai Kara-France 33%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 67% favorite over Kai Kara-France in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1679, a 26-point edge.
Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kai Kara-France finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg share 2 common opponents: Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.