Kailin Curran vs Paige VanZant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-7-0Record8-5-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
37,0"Reach65"
113 lbsWeight125 lbs
RVCATeamGracie Barra Portland
What's at stake
Paige VanZant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kailin Curran carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-11→ 1460
If they win+11→ 1585
If they lose-21→ 1553
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kailin CurranPaige VanZant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paige VanZant69%
Kailin Curran 31%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Paige VanZant a 69% favorite over Kailin Curran in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Paige VanZant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1471, a 103-point edge.
Kailin Curran enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kailin Curran finishes 17% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.
Kailin Curran and Paige VanZant share 1 common opponent: Felice Herrig.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.