Kaiwen Li vs Paul Capaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record8-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605
If they win+24→ 1640
If they lose-24→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kaiwen LiPaul Capaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaiwen Li61%
Paul Capaldo 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 61% favorite over Paul Capaldo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1617 vs 1616), separated by just 1 points.
Kaiwen Li finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Paul Capaldo 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.