Kajan Johnson vs Naoyuki Kotani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-13-1Record37-19-7
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamRodeo Style
What's at stake
Kajan Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Naoyuki Kotani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
If they win+13→ 1607
If they lose-11→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kajan JohnsonNaoyuki Kotani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kajan Johnson and Naoyuki Kotani within a point of even.
Kajan Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1594, a 21-point edge.
Kajan Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Naoyuki Kotani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kajan Johnson finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Naoyuki Kotani 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.