Kaleo Kwan vs Nathan Trepagnier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
11-16-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
HIbred HouseTeamAcademy of Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1512
If they lose-12→ 1488
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kaleo KwanNathan Trepagnier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier72%
Kaleo Kwan 28%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 72% favorite over Kaleo Kwan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1505), separated by just 5 points.
Kaleo Kwan enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kaleo Kwan finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.