Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record15-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
76"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAllstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kamaru Usman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1823
If they lose-11→ 1799
If they win+15→ 1842
If they lose-17→ 1810
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1799 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanKhamzat Chimaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khamzat Chimaev66%
Kamaru Usman 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 66% favorite over Kamaru Usman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1827 to 1810, a 17-point edge.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.
Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev share 2 common opponents: Dricus Du Plessis and Gilbert Burns.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.