Kamaru Usman vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record32-18-0
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
76"Reach70"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1819
If they lose-16→ 1795
If they win+16→ 1714
If they lose-8→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1800 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman76%
Rafael dos Anjos 24%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 76% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1698, a 113-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Kamaru Usman and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Leon Edwards.
Kamaru Usman carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.