Kamaru Usman vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-4-0Record14-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Sergio Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1828
If they lose-18→ 1804
If they win+24→ 1665
If they lose-8→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1799 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman83%
Sergio Moraes 17%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 83% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1641, a 181-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Kamaru Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.