Kamaru Usman vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record14-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamBrazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Sergio Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1817
If they lose-17→ 1793
If they win+23→ 1664
If they lose-9→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1799 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman88%
Sergio Moraes 12%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 88% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1810 to 1641, a 169-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Kamaru Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.