Kamaru Usman vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-4-0Record19-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
76"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tyron Woodley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1832
If they lose-14→ 1808
If they win+14→ 1788
If they lose-10→ 1764
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1799 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman75%
Tyron Woodley 25%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 75% favorite over Tyron Woodley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1774, a 48-point edge.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Kamaru Usman and Tyron Woodley share 2 common opponents: Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns.
Kamaru Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.