Kamaru Usman vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
76"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1816
If they lose-18→ 1792
If they win+24→ 1650
If they lose-8→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1799 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kamaru UsmanWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman88%
Warlley Alves 12%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 88% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1810 to 1626, a 184-point edge.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Kamaru Usman finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Kamaru Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.