Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Roberson vs Wellington Turman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-7-0Record18-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach 72"
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
Killer B Combat Sports AcademyTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl RobersonNow 1607
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
Wellington TurmanNow 1617
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.23
52%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.17
58%
Strike defense
45%
0.72
Takedown avg.
1.55
40%
Takedown accuracy
21%
43%
Takedown defense
43%
0.54
Submission avg.
0.78

Trajectory

Karl RobersonWellington Turman
1600165017002020202120222023

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (22%)
4 (44%)
Submission
8 (44%)
3 (33%)
Decision
6 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Wellington Turman53%
Karl Roberson 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Wellington Turman a 53% favorite over Karl Roberson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1617), separated by just 10 points.

Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Karl Roberson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Wellington Turman 67%.

Karl Roberson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.