Karl Williams vs Łukasz Brzeski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"Reach78"
247 lbsWeight236 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamNKSW Holy Team
What's at stake
Karl Williams is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Łukasz Brzeski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1607
If they lose-19→ 1575
If they win+19→ 1554
If they lose-13→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Karl WilliamsŁukasz Brzeski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Williams63%
Łukasz Brzeski 37%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 63% favorite over Łukasz Brzeski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Karl Williams holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1594 to 1535, a 59-point edge.
Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Łukasz Brzeski 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.