Combat Edge Intelligence

Karl Williams vs Neil Wain

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Neil Wain

Neil Wain

“Old Skool”

13-4-0HeavyweightM4TC

1597Solid

Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record13-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height5'10"
79"ReachTBD
247 lbsWeight242 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karl WilliamsNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Neil WainNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1474 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
49%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.57
56%
Strike defense
43%
4.20
Takedown avg.
0
49%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Karl WilliamsNeil Wain
160016501700201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
9 (69%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
7 (70%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Neil Wain53%
Karl Williams 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Neil Wain a 53% favorite over Karl Williams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1594 vs 1597), separated by just 3 points.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Neil Wain 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.