Karl Williams vs Tony Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record18-8-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
79"ReachTBD
247 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamNashville MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Karl WilliamsTony Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Williams53%
Tony Johnson 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 53% favorite over Tony Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tony Johnson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1603), separated by just 3 points.
Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Tony Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Karl Williams finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Tony Johnson 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.