Combat Edge Intelligence

Karo Parisyan vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-12-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Karo ParisyanNow 1575
If they win+12→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1563
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.49
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
41%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
58%
Strike defense
63%
5.27
Takedown avg.
0.71
60%
Takedown accuracy
61%
60%
Takedown defense
63%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Karo ParisyanThiago Alves
160020182019

Win method breakdown

3 (13%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
11 (46%)
Submission
1 (4%)
10 (42%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Alves52%
Karo Parisyan 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Alves a 52% favorite over Karo Parisyan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Karo Parisyan's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1575 vs 1572), separated by just 3 points.

Karo Parisyan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Karo Parisyan finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.