Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record11-12-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'5"
67"Reach65,0"
135 lbsWeight155 lbs
Parana Vale Tudo· 1663 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamBabuino Gold Team
What's at stake
Karol Rosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Vanessa Melo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1654
If they lose-17→ 1630
If they win+23→ 1503
If they lose-9→ 1471
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Karol RosaVanessa Melo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karol Rosa92%
Vanessa Melo 8%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Karol Rosa a 92% favorite over Vanessa Melo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Karol Rosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1480, a 167-point edge.
Vanessa Melo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Karol Rosa finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Vanessa Melo 18%.
Karol Rosa and Vanessa Melo share 1 common opponent: Irene Aldana.
Karol Rosa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.