Combat Edge Intelligence

Katsunori Kikuno vs Tony Ferguson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team KikunoTeamKnuckleheadz MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Katsunori KikunoNow 1661
If they win+12→ 1673
If they lose-12→ 1649
Tony FergusonNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
4.91
40%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.47
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.37
62%
Strike defense
55%
1.88
Takedown avg.
0.39
75%
Takedown accuracy
35%
77%
Takedown defense
66%
0.84
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Katsunori KikunoTony Ferguson
16501700175020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (50%)
KO/TKO
12 (48%)
2 (10%)
Submission
8 (32%)
8 (40%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Katsunori Kikuno51%
Tony Ferguson 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Katsunori Kikuno a 51% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1659), separated by just 2 points.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Katsunori Kikuno finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.