Combat Edge Intelligence

Kauê Fernandes vs Kurt Holobaugh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamGracie United

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Kurt HolobaughNow 1658
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.41
Sig. strikes / min
4.65
50%
Strike accuracy
45%
5.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.30
29%
Strike defense
50%
0
Takedown avg.
0.66
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
0%
Takedown defense
39%
0
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Kauê FernandesKurt Holobaugh
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
2 (18%)
Submission
10 (48%)
3 (27%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes92%
Kurt Holobaugh 8%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 92% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1658), separated by just 1 points.

Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Holobaugh 81%.

Kauê Fernandes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.