Combat Edge Intelligence

Kauê Fernandes vs Luiz Firmino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record20-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Luiz FirminoNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.41
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
29%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kauê FernandesLuiz Firmino
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
2 (18%)
Submission
7 (35%)
3 (27%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes88%
Luiz Firmino 12%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 88% favorite over Luiz Firmino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1659), separated by just 0 points.

Luiz Firmino enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Luiz Firmino 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.