Combat Edge Intelligence

Kauê Fernandes vs Mohammad Yahya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTK MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

Kauê Fernandes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Mohammad Yahya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-20→ 1639
Mohammad YahyaNow 1567
If they win+20→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.50
50%
Strike accuracy
40%
5.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.39
29%
Strike defense
43%
0
Takedown avg.
0.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
0%
Takedown defense
43%
0
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Kauê FernandesMohammad Yahya
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
2 (18%)
Submission
2 (17%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes92%
Mohammad Yahya 8%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 92% favorite over Mohammad Yahya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Kauê Fernandes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1567, a 92-point edge.

Mohammad Yahya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Yahya 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.