Kauê Fernandes vs Mohammad Yahya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTK MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
Kauê Fernandes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mohammad Yahya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1689
If they lose-21→ 1657
If they win+21→ 1586
If they lose-11→ 1554
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kauê FernandesMohammad Yahya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kauê Fernandes64%
Mohammad Yahya 36%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 64% favorite over Mohammad Yahya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Kauê Fernandes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1565, a 113-point edge.
Kauê Fernandes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mohammad Yahya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Yahya 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.