Kauê Fernandes vs Marcos Aurélio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record10-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
73"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight152 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamMutaru
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kauê FernandesMarcos Aurélio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kauê Fernandes57%
Marcos Aurélio 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 57% favorite over Marcos Aurélio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Aurélio's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1662), separated by just 2 points.
Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Aurélio 80%.
Kauê Fernandes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.