Combat Edge Intelligence

Kauê Fernandes vs Matheus Camilo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
73"Reach 69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kauê FernandesNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Matheus CamiloNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.41
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
50%
Strike accuracy
43%
5.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.25
29%
Strike defense
64%
0
Takedown avg.
4.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
54%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0.63

Trajectory

Kauê FernandesMatheus Camilo
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
2 (18%)
Submission
2 (18%)
3 (27%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Kauê Fernandes52%
Matheus Camilo 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 52% favorite over Matheus Camilo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1657), separated by just 2 points.

Matheus Camilo enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Kauê Fernandes finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Camilo 64%.

Kauê Fernandes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.