Combat Edge Intelligence

Kayck Alencar vs Vaughan Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record14-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'5"
-ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Evolucao ThaiTeamUTC Birmingham

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kayck AlencarNow 1512
If they win+16→ 1528
If they lose-16→ 1496
Vaughan LeeNow 1507
If they win+12→ 1519
If they lose-12→ 1495

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
TBD
Strike defense
70%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.81
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
72%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Kayck AlencarVaughan Lee
1500155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
2 (17%)
Submission
7 (50%)
5 (42%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Kayck Alencar66%
Vaughan Lee 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Kayck Alencar a 66% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1512 vs 1507), separated by just 5 points.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Kayck Alencar finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.