Combat Edge Intelligence

Kayck Alencar vs Zarrukh Adashev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record4-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
-Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Evolucao ThaiTeamLions Martial Arts Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kayck AlencarNow 1512
If they win+16→ 1528
If they lose-16→ 1496
Zarrukh AdashevNow 1521
If they win+23→ 1544
If they lose-25→ 1496

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.04
TBD
Strike defense
65%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Kayck AlencarZarrukh Adashev
150015502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
2 (50%)
2 (17%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (42%)
Decision
2 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Kayck Alencar56%
Zarrukh Adashev 44%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kayck Alencar a 56% favorite over Zarrukh Adashev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Zarrukh Adashev's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1512 vs 1521), separated by just 9 points.

Kayck Alencar finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Zarrukh Adashev 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.